On June 13, Israel launched a massive airstrike on Iranian airspace, to which Tehran responded with various types of missiles and drones. The confrontations continued until June 23, when the US intervened, participating with B-2 bombers bombing Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan on June 21.
This article discusses the losers and winners in this war that has shaken the region, focusing on the main players in Iran and Israel. This includes the Iranian opposition forces that could have potentially constituted an alternative to the existing regime had it fallen.
The Iranian regime was preparing for a clash, especially after the blows its allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq suffered following the October 7, 2023, attack carried out by Hamas and its allies on Israel. Both Iran and Israel claimed victory in the 12-day war.
Iran lost several of its military and security leaders, and prominent nuclear scientists have been assassinated. Iran's irreplaceable military bases, nuclear facilities, and economic facilities were also destroyed in the short term, a result of deep Israeli intelligence penetration into Iranian institutions and an unprecedented breach of the country's airspace.
However, Israel failed to overthrow the Iranian regime or eliminate its entire leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was absent during the first days of the attack. Therefore, Iran's claim of victory appears to be mere propaganda, as the situation resembles what happened to Hezbollah in Lebanon following Israeli strikes. They enabled Israel to strike at will, even if it took into account Iran's missile response. Therefore, in the medium and long term, the Iranian regime can be classified as a major loser in this war.
In contrast, Israel was subjected to unprecedented missile attacks. These attacks targeted residential and government buildings, as well as sensitive research and security sites. The details of the damage remain secret. Ben Gurion Airport (the main international airport) was also paralyzed, the country suffered heavy economic losses, and dozens of military and civilian personnel were killed. However, unlike Iran, which is subject to crippling sanctions, Israel will receive direct support from its Western allies, led by the US, enabling it to recover discreetly.
Despite the declared euphoria of the Iranian and Israeli regimes, the situation for Tehran is nothing more than a temporary victory. The return of citizens to their homes has not alleviated their sense of insecurity amid the weakening of the government, the worsening living crisis, and rising inflation. This threatens to spark new unrest or even a possible internal coup by the Revolutionary Guard, particularly in non-Persian ethnic areas.
The satellite channel "Al-Araby" reported that Netanyahu met with Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed and late Shah, three days before the attack, and they reportedly agreed to mobilise the Iranian street. However, this did not happen. The two sides' relations date back to the historical closeness between the late Shah and Tel Aviv. Pahlavi also visited Israel in April 2023, sparking widespread controversy.
The first loser was Reza Pahlavi, who openly sided with Israel, which caused him to lose the trust of the Persian public, without gaining the support of other nationalities. This was because the previous regime to the position denied their rights and those of the minorities. The second loser were those who rejoiced in the bombing of economic facilities in Iran, especially in Ahvaz, which belongs to the Ahvazi people, believing that the attack would undermine the regime.
The masses did not respond to these calls to rise up against the regime. It is also noteworthy that the position of the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), an opposition organisation considered a staunch enemy of both the Iranian regime and the monarchy, is noteworthy. Despite the position of the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), an opposition organisation considered a staunch enemy of both the Iranian regime and the monarchy, and ties to the American right, it has avoided endorsing the Israeli attack. It has chosen instead a middle ground. Its slogan is: "No compromise, no war." It has argued that the third option is democratic change by the people.
The Iranian regime has already exploited the security situation to launch a new campaign of repression, likely including executions under the pretext of people collaborating with Israel's Mossad. However, the real spy networks may still be entrenched within the state apparatus, which is governed by a deeply corrupt system.
Newsweek reported that Iran has executed three people in recent days on charges of spying for Israel, bringing the number of espionage-related executions during the recent war to six, according to state media.
However, Donald Trump may be the biggest winner in this conflict, as Washington participated in the military attack and led the mediation that ended the war. This makes the US president the most influential player and the primary political winner.
Photo: The 12-day Israel-Iran war (by Adobe)