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Bringing together diverse minorities and overcoming difficult social and economic conditions are the most prominent challenges facing Syria’s new government. Ahmad Abdel Rahman reports.
The former president of Syria Bashar al-Assad left the palace on the evening of Saturday, December 7, 2024, and Ahmed al-Sharaa, head of Al Nusra Front and now Interim President, entered it the next day without a single bullet being fired in the capital. This is a rare case in history.
However, the journey from Idlib to Damascus has not been smooth for the new regime. The path ahead continues to be bumpy.
Uprooting the Assad regime has been long and hard, perhaps the most complex process of change in the Middle East.
For example, opposition groups have clashed with the Alawites on the coast, there has been the bombing of a Christian church in Damascus, Syria’s capital, and there have been disputes between the Druze of Suwayda and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the Raqqa region. The crises that have occurred were expected, as will be those that may occur in the future. Optimism, enthusiasm, and widespread support have not been enough to prevent these clashes.
SDF was the main force allied to the US in Syria during fighting that defeated Islamic State (IS) in 2019. After Assad had been defeated, the group declared a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq.
Syrians unanimously agreed to oust Assad. However, the alternative regime will need time to build trust. Those affected by the change will also need time to accept the new reality, and cooperate with the regime. There is also the troubled regional environment, where amid the confrontations between local components, two groups pose a threat to the new regime in Syria.
The first group comprises remnants of the former Syrian regime, Iranian forces, and local gangs such as drug mafias.
This group will repeatedly seek to create a climate of confrontation that will grow over time. They will push for the dwarfing of Syria, and to engage Damascus in a long battle with the warring factions. They seek to divide Syria and turn it into independent regions.
The second group considers itself part of the Syrian regime. This group helps to create crises and has its own views on the country's governance and relations with the world.
This loyalist group poses no less of a threat to the regime than the hostile group, as it incites conflicts between different communities, and therefore deepens divisions. Its danger lies in the fact that it drags the Syrian regime into confrontation with neighboring countries in the region and encourages foreign powers to invest in a local civil war.
These traps require careful handling. They should not distract the government from the more difficult task of building the new state awaited by the majority of Syrians, improving living standards, and transitioning to a modern state.
Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa has domestic popularity that he must strengthen. He needs to prevent it eroding as a result of the many challenges, most notably bread shortages, high prices, low salaries, and the slow arrival of foreign aid. These challenges have nothing to do with Iran or the remnants of the Assad regime.
Those involved in the ongoing conflict, under the pretext of protecting freedoms, defending the new regime, or opposing it, are working to inflame conflicting populations, already filled with anxiety and suspicion.
The international community wants a civil state with a disciplined security and military system, and the new Damascus regime needs time to organise its ranks and win over Syria's various factions. It must be remembered that Hafez al-Assad presented himself throughout his rule as the protector of Syria's diverse minorities. There are also extreme forces in the region that want to transform Syria into something similar to Gaza or Afghanistan.
Upon entering the capital, Sharaa announced his openness to all and that his concerns were Syrian, not international. He displayed a moderation that surprised many and managed his relations with a pragmatism consistent with his promises. Therefore, Syria will not be the Iranian model on the verge of disappearing, nor will it fight on behalf of others, against Israel or Iran, nor should it allow others to bring their battles to its borders.
Amid these ethnic, sectarian, and regional tensions, the path will continue to be difficult. The new regime in Syria inherited a devastated country, exhausted by internal and foreign forces. Addressing the challenges in Syria will require political skills, not muscle.