Iraq holds the second-largest oil reserves in the Middle East, after Saudi Arabia. However, these reserves have been plundered by those in power. It is not bankrupt as a result of poor governance, as some parties have suggested. Its wealth has been stolen by those in power, leaving it in dire need of electricity, water, and infrastructure.

Corruption has become so rampant in Iraq that some ministers have stolen billions of dollars and accepted billions in bribes. However, some prime ministers have left office seemingly impoverished although they might have tens of billions in their accounts.

 The recent parliamentary elections are nothing more than a continuation of the cycle of stagnation that has persisted since the 2003 US-led invasion and the subsequent US-Iranian rivalry for influence in Mesopotamia. What has happened is a descent from national identity to sectarian, religious, ethnic, and regional identities. 

The scene and the predicament are encapsulated by two opposing stances: one expressed by the spokesperson for the Iraqi Hezbollah (which is Shiite), who declared:  "The Shiites have complete control over Iraq." The other stance, which is the one taken by Washington, is that it is "standing with Iraq to secure a future free of militias." A state cannot be built in a country where the Shiites assume "complete control," and where Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, and several historically significant religious groups are subject to Shiite domination, the US has said. 

 There is no  possibility of building a state in a country with over a million soldiers, yet it is forced to rely on the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which comprise 70 armed groups, most of which are linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

As a result of corruption, there is no accountability, either due to a lack of ability or an excessive desire to profit from corruption and appease foreign powers. The "October 1, 2019 Revolution" in the southern provinces, where young people in Karbala, Nasiriyah, Maysan, Wasit, Basra, and elsewhere raised the slogan "get rid of the American and Iranian occupations," were subjected to a campaign of repression, violence, and killing. by the Iraqi security forces.

Successive governments headed by leaders of Shiite religious parties, with the exception of two figures outside Iranian influence—Iyad Allawi and Mustafa al-Kadhimi—attempted either to tip the scales in favor of Iranian influence or to establish a minimal balance in relations with Washington and Tehran and to open up to Arab neighbours. What do you mean? However, the Iraqi predicament persisted. 

Iraq’s future

Even the control exerted by armed militias from outside Anbar province continues to this day, even after the fall of the ISIS "caliphate" declared by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi from the Grand Mosque of Mosul, with Raqqa in Syria as its capital. When Muqtada al-Sadr's movement won the largest number of parliamentary seats and attempted to shift the power structure from partisan quotas to a national programme, it found itself forced to withdraw from parliament.

It is inconceivable to return Iraq to its state a century ago. In 1920, King Faisal I said: "In my opinion, there is no Iraqi people in Iraq yet, but rather imaginary human groups devoid of any national idea and steeped in religious traditions and falsehoods."

 By 2025, it seems Iraq is reverting to its pre-state sectarian components. The battle today is not the election battle but the post-election battle—the battle for Iraq's future.

What Tehran, Iran’s capital, wants is the complete military, political, and cultural expulsion of the United States (US) from Iraq. Its affiliated militias insist that the country be free of any American presence by the end of this year. What Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani wants is to rely on the 2008 Strategic Framework Agreement with the US and to reach an understanding on bilateral partnerships in several areas, rather than the international coalition.

In reality, the struggle for Iraq is entering a highly delicate and sensitive phase. What Iran is working towards, after losing Syria with the fall of the Assad regime (the ousted President Bashar al-Assad) and its near-loss of influence in Gaza and Lebanon, is maintaining significant influence in Baghdad, because losing Iraq would mark the end of the Iranian regional project.