Putin's Alaska summit and the Israeli model

Rejection of the Israeli occupation must be complemented by rejection of the Russian seizure of Ukrainian territory and by refusal of any major international or regional power seizing the territory of a weak or small country. 

No leader goes to a summit betting on what the other leader can offer, but President Donald Trump did it like a "traveller fueled by imagination." Trump went to the Alaska summit imagining it was his summit and his opportunity to end the war in Ukraine, only to find himself at a summit with President Vladimir Putin and his insistence on conceding more than he had received through military invasion.

Trump completed the game by inviting President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House, accompanied by European leaders, with only one item on the table: Putin's request to stop the war in Ukraine. The Alaska summit needed Ukrainian and European approval at the Washington summit, which was governed by the outcomes of the Alaska summit on the Ukrainian issue. The Washington summit was out of the game with regard to the bilateral and international issues whose files were opened by the summit. 

In an article published in Foreign Affairs entitled "The End of the Long American Century," the article’s authors Robert Keohane and Joseph Nye argue that there are three sources of power: coercion, push, and attraction. Trump focuses on coercion.

Unlike former US President Teddy Roosevelt, who said: "Speak softly and carry a big stick," Trump uses harsh words and carries a very big stick, then quickly abandons the words and abandons the stick when an opportunity for a deal arises. The least Keohane and Nye see is that "the slogan ‘Make America Great Again’ is a disastrous bet on America’s weakness through hard power."

What did the Alaska summit achieve for Putin?

Putin didn’t achieve any symbolic and practical accomplishments during the summit; he did not even get even a ceasefire in Ukraine. A summary of what he achieved in a few hours in Anchorage can be summed up as follows: First, he broke Russia's Western isolation. Second, he separated Russian-American relations from that Ukraine war. Third, he separated America and Europe in managing relations with Moscow.  Why is this an achievement of the summit? Fourth, after the military failure by Russia in which it wanted to occupy Ukraine within a week, but has turned to a long war that has entered its third year, Putin has insistence on linking the end of the war to the surrender of Crimea, the Donbass in eastern Ukraine, and, in practice, four large provinces, to the formal recognition of Russian territory. 

Fifth, Putin obtained a guarantee that any move toward Ukrainian membership in NATO would be abandoned. Sixth, Putin secured a guarantee that some US sanctions on Russia would be reduced and that all sanctions would eventually be eliminated, as well as exempting China from sanctions on its purchase of Russian oil. Seventh, Putin has managed to normalise relations with America in various areas, as well as maintaining a "unlimited partnership" with China, a "strategic partnership" with North Korea, and Iran.

The future of Europe

It will be difficult for Zelensky and European leaders to accept Putin's terms, regardless of their desire to stop the war and Trump's pressure to force the Ukrainian president to accept a deal at the expense of territory and sovereignty. If successful, this would have dire consequences for Ukraine's domestic situation and for European geopolitics.

NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, told Time magazine that he is "convinced that we are safe now, but Russia is replenishing its armed forces, and if we don't spend a lot on defense manufacturing, the Russians could try something".

Many analysts in Europe are talking about Putin's appetite for expansion, and according to Time, they believe he will continue his policy of annexing every territory with a Russian-speaking minority. Therefore, Putin's next move in the next few years could be to invade the three Baltic countries: Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. 

The Middle East

The Middle East is not outside this dangerous game. During his first term, Trump recognised Israel's annexation of Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and in his second term, he is handing over to Putin the fruits of his invasion of Ukraine. Given the Israeli and Russian models, it is not surprising that Trump would continue to support Israel's war on Gaza and Netanyahu's ambitions, saying: "I am on a historic and spiritual mission and am emotionally attached to the vision of Greater Israel."

Therefore, nothing can prevent Israel from annexing the West Bank and lands in Lebanon, Syria, and other countries as long as Russia can secure recognition of the fruits of its invasion of a neighbouring country that was a republic of the Soviet Union. Moreover, what about the geopolitical ambitions of Iran and Turkey in Arab countries?

An invasion is an invasion, regardless of who perpetrates it and who its victims are. Rejecting the Israeli occupation must be complemented by rejecting the Russian seizure of Ukrainian land and refusing the seizure of land by any major international or regional power of a weak or small country.