Iran will attempt to once again enhance its security and deterrent capabilities, instead of its current state of strategic weakness. Therefore, instead of announcing a change in its defence doctrine, which could be a pretext for preemptive strikes, it may concede to an agreement that gives it time to develop an effective air force and defence systems. Ahmed Abdel Rahman explains.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian recently announced that the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA would continue until the security of Iranian scientists and nuclear facilities is guaranteed. The Guardian Council spokesman also confirmed the suspension.
Meanwhile, the Sultanate of Oman reiterated the importance of resuming negotiations between Iran and the US. Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi stressed the need for concessions to resume nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran, saying: "Raising the ceiling of conditions and demands makes it difficult to resume (talks) quickly."
According to Pezeshkian's statement, Iran wants to negotiate but is trying to exert pressure ahead of the negotiations, and the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA is conditional on Tehran receiving guarantees regarding its scientists and nuclear facilities. This is what Iran will seek during the next round of talks with Washington. Indeed, it will be forced to accept stricter international oversight and restrictions on its nuclear programme, to lift US sanctions and address the nuclear issue.
This is in addition to Iran's desire to obtain guarantees that Israel will not attack its nuclear facilities again. However, this is because Israel failed to achieve its goal of destroying Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities.
Despite the US and Israeli attacks on its facilities, Iran has not withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) nor changed its nuclear doctrine. It has merely announced the suspension of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Iran is already attempting to project power, declaring the weakness of US strikes against it. However, the question is, if negotiations resume, what will these negotiations focus on? Moreover, if talks do take place, what concessions will Iran and the US consider?
Of course, the US wants fundamental changes in Iranian policy, particularly its foreign policy. However, can Washington negotiate regarding the missile programme, especially as it threatens the security of Israel and the countries of the region? Iran has announced that it will not negotiate its missile programme. Will negotiations lead to a contentious issue regarding thean internationally permitted level of uranium enrichment.
Iran is forced to make concessions to avoid any American or Israeli attacks in the near term. It also wants sanctions, since its regional proxies are weak. Therefore, Iran may need to reach a truce that gives it a timeframe to rebuild its leverage, such as supporting regional militias and rebuilding itself militarily and organisationally.
Tehran may also work to rebuild its missile capabilities and address the security, military, and intelligence failures that have demonstrated the country's vulnerability from within, especially since confrontations with Israel are likely to resume. This is particularly true since when Israel launched strikes against Iran, Tehran responded with more advanced missiles than those it supplies to its regional proxies, striking vital targets inside Israel. Hence, Tel Aviv will respond in a manner that undermines Iranian deterrence.
Iran will attempt to re-enforce its security and deterrent capabilities, instead of its current state of strategic weakness. Consequently, rather than announcing a change in its defense doctrine, which could serve as a pretext for another preemptive strike, it may concede to an agreement that would give it time to develop an effective air force and defence systems.