Ahmad Abdel-Rahman
April 26, 2024

Egypt wants to stop the deteriorating situation in the Middle East

Egypt adopts a neutral stance towards the successive crises in the Middle East. Its approach is based primarily on stopping escalation in the Middle East and achieving relative calm. Recent developments, most notably the Iranian attack on Israel in response to Tel Aviv's targeting of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, are an example of what Egypt has repeatedly warned against since the Al-Aqsa Flood operation on October 7, 2023 and the ongoing Israeli war on the Gaza Strip.

According to the Egyptian Center for Strategic Studies (ECSS), the Egyptian position is based on trying to control the continuing aggression in the region and its expansion, affecting regional security and peace. The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also confirmed Egypt's position in a statement in which it expressed its deep concern about the Iranian-Israeli conflict and called for restraint.

The Iranian attack represented an escalation and clash between Iran and Israel, according to the centre. It was the first time that Tehran had directly targeted Israeli territory, while estimates of the number of drones and missiles that Iran launched toward Israel varied. However, these drones and missiles were not less than 200, according to Israeli estimates, while Iranian estimates indicated that there were 500 drones and 220 missiles.

How the escalation in hostilities between Iran and Israel will pan out will depend on the nature of the Israeli response to the Iranian attack. There are two possible scenarios, the first of which is that the conflict will be reduced, which is the most likely.

This scenario is reinforced by the fact that the US has not yet finished studying the nature of the Iranian attack and the losses it caused to Israel, in addition to the fact that there are several fronts open to Israel, from the Lebanese, Syrian and Yemeni sides. It is also expected that Washington will intensify diligent diplomatic efforts to close the Israeli and Lebanese border issue through its diplomatic efforts based on a possible agreement document between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

The second scenario depends on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the possibility that he will respond independently and will not coordinate with the US. Under this scenario, Israel will expand its targets inside Iran, some of which may be within the Iranian nuclear and military programmes.

The likelihood of this scenario is less likely, however, given that the US and its Western, and even regional, allies may not want the current conflict to turn into a comprehensive confrontation that will affect everyone's interests, including Washington's.

Photo: Egypt takes a neutral stance in its negotiations with Israel (by Adobe)