The Gaza war is over, according to Donald Trump, but not the entire war, as there are three open fronts. There is a temporary truce in Lebanon and intermittent clashes with the Houthi Ansar Allah in Yemen. Iran remains the major front, and has been on high alert since last June, following the twelve-day war.

All eyes are now on Netanyahu. Will the recent developments following the Sharm el-Sheikh conference sweep him away from the premiership? It is likely that he will complete the tasks he pledged to implement, and that clashes will return to these three fronts. This is because the October 2023 attacks occurred during his tenure, and therefore he bears responsibility for them. He believes that achieving complete victories will place him above accountability. 

Yet if his rivals manage to topple him, the situation in the region will be suspended, awaiting an alternative and a new Israeli policy. Alternatively, he may choose to deescalate and end two years of unrest. 

Netanyahu's chances of survival are likely attributed to his renowned partisan skills in a complex parliamentary system, enabling him to form coalitions that prolong his rule. He has ruled the Jewish state for more than 17 years, a period that exceeds that of David Ben-Gurion, and he still enjoys sufficient popularity after the wars he waged, which achieved Israel's greatest victories since the 1967 war.

Lebanon’s concerns 

There is concern in Lebanon, expressed by President Joseph Aoun, that Israel will turn to his country after it completes its withdrawal from Gaza. Israel will certainly have a surplus of forces after withdrawing most of its army from the Strip. Moreover, because Hezbollah is manoeuvring to evade the implementation of the agreement it signed with Israel to hand over its weapons to the Lebanese Army, which was the basis for the ceasefire, Israel's northern front is considered open.

The US president will not be able to deter Netanyahu this time because both the US and France were witnesses to the agreement and guarantors of it. The ball is now in the court of the Lebanese president, who is avoiding a clash with Hezbollah, out of a desire to preserve the civil peace and stability achieved since the beginning of the year.

According to Israel, it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon and will not cease its attacks until Hezbollah surrenders its weapons, or until new arrangements are established that provide the necessary guarantees.

Yemen’s and Iran’s worries

The clash with the Houthis in Yemen awaits the behaviour of the pro-Iranian group and what it will do after Hamas has agreed to end the war. Israel has the military capability to weaken the Houthis, and prepare the Yemeni forces on the ground to complete the mission and topple the Houthi regime in Sana'a. The enthusiasm that has revived these forces, and prepared them for the next phase can be observed.

The most challenging and dangerous front, with significant regional implications, is the Iranian front. President Trump is the one who stopped the fighting, which had lasted for less than a month. Netanyahu was dissatisfied at the time and did not receive the approval to carry out the planned military operations. However, the US president skillfully exploited this position against Tehran, threatening he would unleash Netanyahu's power if it resumed enrichment or military activity.

This is what puts the Iranian armed forces on high alert. If this happens, Netanyahu will lack the means or pretext to resume his war. A clash between the two major regional powers, Iran and Israel, would be devastating. The countries of the region surrounding the war are anxiously awaiting what will happen.

Politicians in Lebanon and Iran must realise that the dangers have not ended and will not end with the ceasefire agreement in Gaza. That bloody war ended with a bilateral agreement, while the situation on other fronts remains open. 

The large international presence supporting negotiations, exerting pressure, and providing support in Gaza gives the other three threatened parties an opportunity to consider restructuring their situations and agreements, and not to be satisfied with truces, as a truce is nothing but a time bomb.