Mohammed Abunahel
April 9, 2024

Prior and post October 7: measures and scenarios.

Israel is perpetrating horrific, deliberate, and systematic tragedies and genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza. In addition to other forms of forced expulsions, Israel is targeting and killing journalists, medics and charity workers, using starvation as a weapon of war, and other forms of brutality.

The historical background of Israel since its illegal creation in the land of Palestine, along with Israeli political dynamics and ideological motivations, demonstrate that those terrorist acts are not new.

What has led Israel to commit those crimes nowadays in Gaza? Is it the resistance by Hamas on October 7 2023? No, that is definitely not the case. This genocidal attack was not accidental; it is a result of long years of oppression, occupation, suppression, tyranny, repression, despotism and injustice.

The story of  October 7 cannot stand alone; we have to understand the social and political context that led to the Hamas attack, which is the first-ever attack  in the Palestinian national struggle with Israel.

Prior to 7 October

The root of the problem is 76 years of Israeli occupation of Palestine, 57 years of occupation of Gaza and West Bank, 16 years of a Gazan siege and 30 years of failed negotiations and peace processes all of which have led to a further deterioration of human rights in Palestine.

The turning point of the October 7 event is the Israeli aggression on Gaza in 2021, or as it is known as the “Saifal-Quds" battle, between the Palestinian resistance and the Zionist entity.  The administration of former US President Donald Trump is a flash point. His time in office was characterised by major events, including the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem and the forcible expulsion of people in the East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah. In addition, Israel “normalised” relations with several Arab states and the US was paving the way for Saudi Arabia to normalise its relations with Israel, which demands a Palestinian state as a precondition for normalisation.

Those events received almost no reaction from the Arab states or the international community; therefore, they served as a green light for Israel to continue its annexation of land, and arresting and killing Palestinian people.

At the same time, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) was almost absent; its main role was seen only in denunciations and condemnations, which changed nothing on the ground.

Hence, Hamas had to take the initiative to defend all the injustices suffered by the Palestinian people. Hamas followed the tactic of “deceiving the enemy,” by conveying a message to Israel that Hamas was not interested in fighting it. During the Israeli aggression on Gaza in 2022, Hamas did not take part in fighting Israel; by this, Israel was convinced.

The successful resistance reaction by Hamas on October 7, was a result of very long planning and management. For example, during the Great March of Return in 2018- 19, Hamas collected information about the Gaza–Israel barrier, working tirelessly to identify the weaknesses of the Zionist entity.

From  October 7 to the present day

The successful resistance operation took place in the occupied territories of Palestine. Right after this, Israel declared a state of war and called in all reserve soldiers. Following this, war crime measures were implemented, such as a "total" blockade of the already besieged Gaza Strip. This included cutting electricity, preventing the entry of food and fuel, and banning water and food. The Gaza Strip is home to 2.3 million people, making it one of the most densely inhabited locations in the world.

On  October 27, 2023, Israel launched an ongoing invasion of the Gaza Strip. Israel has murdered more than 31,000 Palestinians and destroyed all kinds of buildings. Experts say that the scale and pace of destruction in Gaza are among the most severe in recent history.

This has led to a severe humanitarian crisis including the collapse of the healthcare system in Gaza, along with electricity and communications blackouts. Every inch of Gaza has been bombed including areas the Zionist entity designated as “safe places in Gaza" to which it had previously told Palestinians to evacuate. In addition to being internally displaced, Israel has arrested thousands of Palestinians in Gaza.

Post Israeli war: expected measures and scenarios.

The Israeli war has not ceased yet, and it will not until there is a clear future plan for Gaza that is aligned with the Israeli inspiration. This plan includes the expulsion of the people of Gaza; how Israel will manage it is unclear, since the original plan failed when Egypt refused to coordinate this.However, this plan is now an open offer as the US and Israel are establishing a pier from Gaza to Cyprus. And the US may still make Egypt a financial offer in exchange for housing over a million Palestinian refugees from Gaza.

It is also highly likely that Israel will divide Gaza into small areas for more control, and has announced plans to create “security zones” inside Gaza featuring military posts, checkpoints,and surveillance devices. Furthermore, Israel plans to have open-ended control over security and civilian affairs in the Gaza Strip through a careful selection of  Palestinian governing bodies.

Either plan will aim at least for the following points: 1) To demilitarise Gaza and to create an environment of freedom for the Israeli occupation military across a demilitarised Gaza and 2) to eliminate any possibility of crossing via Rafah and to eliminate any role for Hamas. Critics,including some in Israel, say the goal of eliminating Hamas is unattainable.

Palestine, especially Gaza, is a significant area of the Middle East, and as long as there is no peace in Palestine, the region will continue to encounter continuous unrest. All Israel procedures and policies are designed to continue the suffering of the Palestine people. Israel aims to keep occupying Palestine and prevent the establishment of the state of Palestine.

October 7 comes after 30 years of failed negotiations. It was done with the hope of bringing liberation to Palestine and its people. A major change in the policies of the US, which finances and enables all of Israel’s war crimes and accepts violations of international law and crimes against humanity. Until this changes, Palestine’s 2.5 million people will continue to suffer. Their suffering is the shame of the entire international community.

Photo: Palestinian protest rally for freedom (by Adobe, generated by AI)